Pre-tourney Rankings
Big East
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Syracuse 100.0%   1   31 - 2 17 - 1 31 - 2 17 - 1 +17.2      +8.5 19 +8.7 10 68.5 139 +22.2 2 +24.2 1
17 Georgetown 100.0%   5   22 - 8 12 - 6 22 - 8 12 - 6 +13.6      +5.4 51 +8.2 14 62.0 286 +13.8 17 +12.4 6
18 Marquette 100.0%   3   25 - 7 14 - 4 25 - 7 14 - 4 +13.6      +6.8 28 +6.7 18 77.6 19 +14.9 13 +16.6 2
19 Louisville 100.0%   4   26 - 9 10 - 8 26 - 9 10 - 8 +13.1      +1.8 123 +11.3 1 69.9 113 +14.0 16 +9.7 7
33 Cincinnati 99.9%   7   24 - 10 12 - 6 24 - 10 12 - 6 +10.7      +4.5 60 +6.3 22 63.8 262 +11.7 30 +12.8 4
36 Connecticut 97.6%   9   20 - 13 8 - 10 20 - 13 8 - 10 +10.4      +5.8 40 +4.6 50 63.8 263 +9.5 44 +7.7 9
37 West Virginia 88.0%   10   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +10.4      +6.3 33 +4.1 65 66.7 190 +8.9 52 +8.2 8
40 Notre Dame 99.6%   7   22 - 11 13 - 5 22 - 11 13 - 5 +9.9      +5.3 52 +4.6 51 59.6 320 +11.1 34 +14.6 3
44 Seton Hall 53.2%   11   20 - 12 8 - 10 20 - 12 8 - 10 +8.8      +3.0 96 +5.9 24 66.3 200 +8.7 56 +6.5 10
55 South Florida 22.5%   19 - 13 12 - 6 19 - 13 12 - 6 +8.1      -0.2 173 +8.2 13 55.2 342 +8.6 57 +12.6 5
68 Pittsburgh 0.0%   17 - 16 5 - 13 17 - 16 5 - 13 +7.1      +6.6 31 +0.6 151 61.9 293 +6.1 85 +2.7 14
83 Villanova 0.0%   13 - 19 5 - 13 13 - 19 5 - 13 +5.9      +4.0 70 +2.0 118 73.5 48 +3.8 117 +3.2 13
117 Rutgers 0.0%   14 - 18 6 - 12 14 - 18 6 - 12 +3.5      -0.8 192 +4.3 58 68.9 130 +3.2 129 +4.8 11
121 Providence 0.0%   15 - 17 4 - 14 15 - 17 4 - 14 +3.2      +4.8 58 -1.6 222 68.5 140 +3.8 119 +2.1 15
146 St. John's 0.0%   13 - 19 6 - 12 13 - 19 6 - 12 +1.5      +1.0 144 +0.5 153 70.3 104 +3.2 132 +4.8 12
156 DePaul 0.0%   12 - 19 3 - 15 12 - 19 3 - 15 +1.0      +3.6 82 -2.5 253 82.6 7 +0.3 167 -0.9 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Syracuse 1.0 100.0
Georgetown 4.0 100.0
Marquette 2.0 100.0
Louisville 7.0 100.0
Cincinnati 4.0 100.0
Connecticut 9.0 100.0
West Virginia 8.0 100.0
Notre Dame 3.0 100.0
Seton Hall 9.0 100.0
South Florida 4.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 13.0 100.0
Villanova 13.0 100.0
Rutgers 11.0 100.0
Providence 15.0 100.0
St. John's 11.0 100.0
DePaul 16.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Syracuse 17 - 1 100.0
Georgetown 12 - 6 100.0
Marquette 14 - 4 100.0
Louisville 10 - 8 100.0
Cincinnati 12 - 6 100.0
Connecticut 8 - 10 100.0
West Virginia 9 - 9 100.0
Notre Dame 13 - 5 100.0
Seton Hall 8 - 10 100.0
South Florida 12 - 6 100.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 100.0
Villanova 5 - 13 100.0
Rutgers 6 - 12 100.0
Providence 4 - 14 100.0
St. John's 6 - 12 100.0
DePaul 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Syracuse 100.0% 100.0
Georgetown
Marquette
Louisville
Cincinnati
Connecticut
West Virginia
Notre Dame
Seton Hall
South Florida
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Rutgers
Providence
St. John's
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Syracuse 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   77.3 22.5 0.3 100.0%
Georgetown 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.2 13.2 38.6 42.1 5.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Marquette 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   1.3 9.1 52.5 32.3 4.9 0.1 100.0%
Louisville 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.2 14.1 41.4 40.0 4.3 0.1
Cincinnati 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 7   0.0 4.4 23.4 44.5 24.3 3.1 0.1 0.1 99.9%
Connecticut 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 9   0.0 1.0 4.9 29.2 46.0 15.6 0.9 0.0 2.4 97.6%
West Virginia 88.0% 0.0% 88.0% 10   0.0 3.0 15.4 41.6 25.7 2.4 0.0 12.0 88.0%
Notre Dame 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 7   0.0 0.0 2.3 15.6 39.0 35.2 7.3 0.3 0.4 99.6%
Seton Hall 53.2% 0.0% 53.2% 11   0.0 0.4 6.7 27.0 18.6 0.5 46.8 53.2%
South Florida 22.5% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.4 8.2 0.5 77.5 22.5%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Villanova 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Providence 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. John's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Syracuse 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.7% 68.8% 46.2% 26.5% 13.2% 6.6%
Georgetown 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 71.0% 39.5% 15.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9%
Marquette 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 72.0% 43.7% 17.6% 7.4% 2.6% 0.9%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 69.6% 37.6% 14.0% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7%
Cincinnati 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 54.4% 17.3% 6.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
Connecticut 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 47.0% 11.1% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
West Virginia 88.0% 2.2% 86.9% 39.7% 11.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Notre Dame 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 49.1% 13.1% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Seton Hall 53.2% 19.6% 43.9% 17.0% 5.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
South Florida 22.5% 19.6% 12.9% 4.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Villanova 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.6 0.1 4.6 38.8 47.4 9.1
1st Round 100.0% 8.4 0.1 6.4 50.3 39.0 4.2
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.2 1.8 7.6 19.8 29.6 26.6 11.8 2.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.7% 2.5 2.4 15.8 33.3 30.7 14.0 3.5 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 78.0% 1.2 22.0 47.0 24.9 5.6 0.4 0.0
Final Four 45.7% 0.5 54.3 39.4 6.1 0.2 0.0
Final Game 21.3% 0.2 78.7 20.6 0.7
Champion 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4